Model line
North Carolina −26.2
2025–26 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
North Carolina >99%
Projected tempo
70.9
possessions
Site
North Carolina home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes North Carolina a 26.2-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Central Arkansas offense vs North Carolina defense
| Central Arkansas O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.9#153 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 54.0#69 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 15.4#97 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 28.8#238 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 31.2#276 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 10.7#280 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 58.0#55 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 54.7#64 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 35.5#89 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 70.7#246 | FT% | — |
| 48.7#21 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
North Carolina offense vs Central Arkansas defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | Central Arkansas D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #15368.9 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #32654.9 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #5019.0 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #4827.4 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #6030.1 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #3176.8 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #35562.3 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #34757.3 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #25535.2 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #252.3 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Central Arkansas
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Queens182 | L 93–98 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | Florida Gulf Coast275 | W 73–63 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Bellarmine305 | W 86–73 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Queens182 | W 84–79 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Austin Peay195 | W 93–88 |
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
