Model line
Connecticut −39.9
2025–26 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Connecticut >99%
Projected tempo
68.0
possessions
Site
Connecticut home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Connecticut a 39.9-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
New Haven offense vs Connecticut defense
| New Haven O | Stat | Connecticut D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.5#361 | Tempo | #29466.0 |
| 48.7#297 | eFG% | #845.9 |
| 17.8#262 | TOV% | #9618.0 |
| 21.5#359 | ORB% | #8028.3 |
| 31.7#262 | FT rate | #30840.6 |
| 7.7#39 | Block% | #915.0 |
| 49.7#247 | Assist% | #8549.0 |
| 51.0#213 | 2P% | #1345.9 |
| 30.2#340 | 3P% | #2030.5 |
| 70.2#267 | FT% | — |
| 39.8#176 | 3PA rate | #27336.6 |
Connecticut offense vs New Haven defense
| Connecticut O | Stat | New Haven D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.0#294 | Tempo | #36163.5 |
| 55.3#33 | eFG% | #20151.8 |
| 16.7#174 | TOV% | #14417.1 |
| 36.1#24 | ORB% | #3426.8 |
| 29.9#313 | FT rate | #3227.7 |
| 9.6#196 | Block% | #3416.1 |
| 65.1#7 | Assist% | #8448.9 |
| 57.4#26 | 2P% | #20052.1 |
| 34.7#134 | 3P% | #20334.3 |
| 71.6#217 | FT% | — |
| 40.3#163 | 3PA rate | #21738.4 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
New Haven
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Le Moyne319 | W 66–59 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | A | Wagner338 | L 62–65 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | St. Francis PA | L 67–73 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Fairleigh Dickinson345 | W 84–77 |
| Thu, Feb 19 | H | Stonehill350 | W 64–51 |
Connecticut
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Michigan24 | L 63–69 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Illinois7 | W 71–62 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Duke1 | W 73–72 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan St.9 | W 67–63 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | UCLA18 | W 73–57 |
