Model line
Virginia −38.0
2025–26 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Virginia >99%
Projected tempo
69.3
possessions
Site
Virginia home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Virginia a 38.0-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Rider offense vs Virginia defense
| Rider O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.7#309 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 42.8#365 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 16.9#195 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 32.6#102 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 30.1#307 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 8.3#82 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 44.3#342 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 43.3#362 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 27.7#365 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 70.1#272 | FT% | — |
| 27.5#361 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Virginia offense vs Rider defense
| Virginia O | Stat | Rider D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #30965.7 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #33755.2 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #26915.3 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #29232.8 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #11632.5 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #1769.3 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #23754.4 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #27954.0 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #35637.9 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #16539.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Rider
| Sun, Mar 1 | A | Siena271 | L 61–76 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | A | Iona222 | L 58–80 |
| Sun, Feb 22 | H | Niagara318 | W 67–62 |
| Fri, Feb 20 | H | Canisius339 | L 66–72 |
| Sun, Feb 15 | A | Sacred Heart310 | L 75–86 |
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
